Federal Election 2025:
Is the Bloc a factor?

Bloc Québécois support could sustain a minority government

By Irwin Rapoport

April 3, 2025

Justin Trudeau’s Liberal minority government had survived since 2021 thanks to Jagmeet Singh’s NDP, which held the role of kingmaker via the Supply and Confidence Agreement, confidence-in-Ottawa it signed with the Liberals in March 2022. The agreement was set to expire in June, and following the House of Commons summer recess, Parliament would be dissolved in mid-September to hold an election in October, thus abiding by the legislation that established fixed elections every four years.

The Liberal government, supported by the NDP, moved the federal election date back by one week—a change widely criticized as self-serving, since it allowed over 80 MPs to qualify for parliamentary pensions by meeting the six-year service threshold. This move deepened public distrust in political motives.

All was going according to plan, but everything changed in September 2024 when Singh withdrew from the agreement, citing Trudeau’s failure to deliver on pharmacare and other NDP priorities, left the government teetering, forced to negotiate vote-by-vote rather than relying on guaranteed NDP support.

Pierre Poilievre, who had spent years railing against the Liberal-NDP alliance as an undemocratic power grab, seized the moment, branding Singh a hypocrite for propping up Trudeau before suddenly pulling the plug. Polievre labeled Singh as ‘sell-out Singh’ to mock the NDP. For a brief, chaotic moment, Singh even joined Poilievre in demanding an immediate confidence vote—only to backtrack days later, opting instead to keep the Liberals in power while warning he’d bring them down at the first opportunity.

In article entitled The political power of a non-confidence motion—and how Poilievre is using them to set the Parliamentary agenda: Dave Snow in the Hub, Dave Snow, Associate professor in political science at the University of Guelph and a senior fellow at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute, examined how Polievre utilized confidence motions as a political tool.

The political maneuvering reached fever pitch by December, when Singh finally declared he would vote against the government.

Trudeau, who was already facing calls from Liberal MPs to resign, finally did so last January after publicly humiliating Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland and thus lost the support of his caucus. The PM then prorogued Parliament in January, delaying an inevitable confidence motion backed by the Conservatives, Bloc, and NDP. This led to a short leadership race, which Mark Carney won on March 9.

Carney wasted no time. Within weeks of assuming leadership, he called an April 28 election, swiftly assembling a cabinet, scrapping the carbon tax for consumers, shelving Trudeau’s capital gains tax hike, pledging $1.1 billion for Quebec transit, and visiting Paris and London for talks with Macron and Starmer. Trump even reached out to Carney to discuss tariffs and Canadian-American relations, publicly displaying respect for Canada and its leader.

Carney’s rapid reset has pushed Liberal polling into majority territory, confirming that the party’s sharp decline in voter support was a result of Trudeau remaining at the helm. The election is Carney’s to lose, but the specter of a minority still looms.

And here’s where things get messy…

If the NDP is reduced to a rump caucus (fewer than 10 MPs) and the Greens cling to a seat or two, Carney might survive. But if the Bloc Québécois holds or expands its 33 seats, making them kingmakers, Canada could face an explosive constitutional dilemma. Would voters support a minority government propped up by separatists? Would the NDP or Greens ever back Poilievre? And what would Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet demand in exchange for support?

The current Quebec standings are 33 for the Liberals, 33 for the Bloc, 9 for the Conservatives, one for the NDP, and one that is vacant.

History offers grim parallels. In 2004, Paul Martin’s minority government barely survived opposition brinkmanship, while Stephen Harper, despite publicly decrying coalitions, secretly courted the Bloc and NDP to unseat Martin without an election. The hypocrisy still stings. For more details, check out Paul Martin’s Wikipedia page via the 2004 federal election and Minority government sections. The Coalition Attempt section of the Bloc Québécois Facebook page provides key information on the political machinations swirling about.

Liberal Prime Minister Stéphane Dion lost the October 14, 2008, election, with Harper securing a minority government. Harper subsequently lost a confidence vote via a fiscal update in November, and then all hell broke loose with the possibility of a coalition government being formed, with the Bloc being a central pillar.

The 2008 parliamentary dispute section in Dion’s Facebook page is illuminating: Rather than force a new election, Liberals and NDP reached a deal to form a minority coalition government, with support from the Bloc Québécois. In the agreement, Dion would have been the Prime Minister until May, when the Liberal Party would elect his successor. Dion sent a letter of the plan to Governor General Michaëlle Jean, and the opposition had scheduled a non-confidence motion for December 8, 2008… On December 4, 2008, the Governor General granted Prime Minister Harper’s request to suspend parliament until January 2009, thereby delaying a scheduled non-confidence vote and the likely defeat of the Conservative government.

The answers will shape not just this election, but the future of Canadian governance.

Now, as Carney and Poilievre barrel toward election day, key questions arise for party leaders: Will either strike deals with the Bloc or NDP to secure power? What concessions would Singh demand to back a Liberal minority—or could he ever support a Conservative one? And what guarantees would Yves-François Blanchet require to back either party?

I doubt Green Leader Elizabeth May would support a Conservative minority government unless she secured guarantees that would thwart Polievre’s policy of ‘drill baby drill’ and the creation of “shovel-ready zones” for resource development projects and energy development corridors.

With Quebec’s three-way race poised to decide the balance of power, one thing is certain: strategic voting—whether to block the Bloc, the Conservatives, or the Liberals—will dominate the campaign.

Some condemn strategic voting, but it is a reality, especially in ridings outside of Quebec, where Conservative candidates won due to the Liberals, NDP, and Greens splitting the vote. And in Quebec, Bloc candidates have benefited from Liberal, Conservative, NDP, and Green candidates splitting the federalist vote.

These answers will shape Canada’s political future, particularly in Quebec, where strategic voting could determine whether this election produces stability or further uncertainty. The stakes couldn’t be higher. Will April 28 deliver stability, or another era of parliamentary chaos? Buckle up.

Feature image: Elections Canada

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Irwin Rapoport is a freelance journalist and former school commissioner with the Protestant School Board of Greater Montreal (1990-1994). He is currently a candidate in Ward 3 for the English Montreal School Board elections.